Currency Trading

The first and last word on trading within currency markets. Expert trading veteran Philip Gotthelf provides the first comprehensive guide to currency speculation aimed toward the average investor. Combining fundamental and technical analysis, this book teaches traders how to take advantage of fluctuations within the currency markets and capture enormous gains. Currency Trading takes the latest developments in the FOREX market and provides readers with a complete trading plan.

Currency Strategy

Currency Strategy develops new techniques and explains classic tools available for predicting, managing, and optimizing fluctuations in the currency markets. Author Callum Henderson shows readers how traditional macroeconomic theory has repeatedly failed in the face of practical experience in these markets and develops a new approach based on experience. He draws on the technical expertise of his bank to develop mathematical models to assist in the prediction of crises and gives practical advice on how to use these and other tools successfully.

An Introduction to Foreign Exchange & Money Markets An Introduction to Foreign Exchange & Money Markets

A new concept in financial education training - The Reuters Financial Training Series: An Introduction to Foreign Exchange & Money Markets, will guide novices through the intricacies of the world's wealthiest capital exchange markets. This book sets out to give a clear understanding of how and why these markets function, and explains the associated jargon. Readers will be able to take a more detailed look at Money Market and Foreign Exchange instruments and will be able to examine, in particular, the parameters which must be defined in order to place a value on these instruments, together with basic valuation techniques.

Technical Analysis Applications in the Global Currency Markets Technical Analysis Applications in the Global Currency Markets

Now updated and revised with all new charts and key information on the euro. The introduction of the euro and the recent explosion of electronic trading has changed the outlook of the foreign exchange market dramatically. Global currency trading offers staggering rewards for those with the knowledge to capitalize on it.

This updated guide provides an easy-to-follow roadmap for beginners and experienced traders alike on how to use technical analysis-with revised charts and graphs-to cash in on these enormous opportunities.

The only guide of its kind to focus solely on all aspects of technical analysis, Luca explains and illustrates:

* The fundamentals of technical analysis and how it applies to foreign exchange What one must learn about trends and trend patterns
* How the major players in foreign exchange analyze their charts
* The quantitative methods of analysis-including all types of moving averages, oscillators, and other indicators

This book provides a thorough, yet easy-to-grasp explanation and analysis of point and figure charting, candlestick charting, the Gann methods, and the Elliot Wave principle. Also included is an updated CD-ROM that lets readers test the methods presented and apply them to real trading-and quickly increase proficiency in charting and chart analysis.

Trading in the Global Currency Markets

An in depth look at the tremendous potential of this vital market with expert advice from one of the foremost authorities. The foreign exchange market is the world's largest and fastest growing financial terrain. Despite its high trading volume, it is also a market little understood and little regulated. This definitive resource brings the universe of foreign exchange within reach of every investor. The revised edition includes complete comprehensive coverage of the euro and the latest historical and economic changes in the market.

Cornelius Luca, a renowned authority on international investing, draws on the insights of leading experts in diverse fields of specialty to explain every crucial aspect of foreign exchange. He provides investors with an arsenal of trading weapons, many on the cutting edge of technology. Demystifying the intricacies of these markets, the book includes:

Analysis of the mechanics of the market, the major players and markets, the pertinent risks, corporate trading, and methods of trading execution.

A thorough overview of foreign exchange instruments and major option strategies, with clear explanations of why currencies are traded and how to forecast currency behavior. An in-depth look at the three types of analysis: fundamental, technical, and econometric. Featuring 200 charts and graphics, TRADING IN THE GLOBAL CURRENCY MARKETS is an indispensable guide to a daunting yet promising financial playing field.

FOREX Business School - Affordable Currency Trader Education

Aug 16, 2006 – College professor, and experienced investment advisor, Leonard Cox, has been chosen to lead the development team for FOREX Business School. “When I received my MBA from Harvard Business School, with a focus on finance, I never expected the need to continue professional development studies to prepare to be a successful currency trader” says professor Cox.
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The FOREXBusinessSchool.com course covers up-to-date versions of the most common FOREX educational topics. It is the vast supplemental resources and built-in reference materials that make this course far different from anything else. The value offered by this Understanding FOREX Markets course is incomparable. To get this much knowledge, education, and information would cost thousands of dollars in business college tuition.
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Begin Forex

The idea of Begin Forex is to get you started in forex trading as quickly as possible plus shows you how to use the world's best forecast tools and services to be profitable and a successful forex trader right from the start. Who is this book for?This book is for people new to forex trading and want to begin forex trading.

Forex Made Easy

Book Info

FOREX Made Easy is the first book to approach the topic in a detailed yet accessible style, gradually and deliberately moving from simple to complex in easy and natural language. Author James Dicks--founder of the popular trading software 4X Made Easy--draws upon his trading knowledge to give readers only the information they need, from setting up a workstation to trading electronically.

International Money and Foreign Exchange Markets : An Introduction

Essential reading for students of finance, banking and business, as well as MBA students needing an introduction to financial markets. Paper. DLC: Foreign exchange market.

Foreign Exchange An Introduction to Foreign Exchange & Money Markets

3.

The Reuters Financial Training Series An Introduction to Foreign Exchange & Money Markets A new concept in financial education training, An Introduction to Foreign Exchange & Money Market is guides novices through the intricacies of the world’s wealthiest capital exchange markets.

Currency Trading: How to Access and Trade the World's Biggest Market

Provides a cutting-edge and comprehensive overview of the largest market in the world and shows you how to take advantage of the fluctuations within currency markets to reap enormous rewards. Filled with in-depth insights and valuable advice that any level of currency trader can appreciate.

Trading in the Global Currency Markets

(New York Institute of Finance) Text brings the complex machinations of the foreign currency markets to life, clearly and concisely analyzing the various currencies, market forces, and emerging technologies, and illuminating them with real-world examples and graphics. DLC: Foreign exchange market.

Learn Forex

FOREX (the Foreign Exchange market) is an international market where participants speculate on the value of different currencies, buying and selling dollars, pounds, euros, and other currencies.

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EURO / US DOLLAR

Classical Outlook: Price action remains extremely choppy with the market whipsawing between 1.4000 and 1.4340 in recent trade. However, at this point it appears as though bulls are winning out, with any pullbacks easily met by intense buying. A closer look at the weekly suggests that we are on the verge of another major upside break following consolidation since May, which if broken, would project gains towards 1.5000. Look for a break above 1.4340 and close above the 100-Week SMA to confirm. Elliott Wave Outlook: Last week, I wrote that “a 4th wave triangle is complete at1.3877 and the next expected move is a terminal thrust (higher) above 1.4340 and maybe 1.4720.” Today’s strong rally inspires confidence in a break next week. Again, expectations are for the rally to end above 1.4720.

BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR

Classical Outlook: Friday’s price action alone has negated the hopes for a major head & shoulders top formation on the daily chart with the weekly price action now looking more like a bullish consolidation that is on the verge of some fresh upside. A sustained break above 1.6745 should open the door for a push back above 1.7000 over the coming days. Back under 1.6340 now required to shift structure. Elliott Wave Outlook: A triangle is also complete in the GBPUSD. Price should stay above 1.6470 on its way to at least 1.7000. Keep in mind that the rally will complete the entire advance from the January low as thrusts from triangles are considered terminal.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR

Fresh 2009 highs beyond 0.8265 with the market ending the latest multi-week consolidation and now attempting to push towards critical psychological barriers by 0.8500. Any hopes from USD bulls for a top can only now be achieved with an immediate failure above 0.8300 and break back below 0.8125 which now offers itself as formidable support. The market is set to close above the 100-Week SMA for the first time since August 2008. Elliott Wave Outlook: Bigger picture, the AUDUSD is at risk of a significant decline as the structure of the rally from .6005 is corrective (3 waves). But, the larger decline will not begin until wave v of C is complete . .8385 (61.8% of the decline from .9856) is potential resistance. Expect a test of .85.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR

Fresh 2009 highs beyond 0.8265 with the market ending the latest multi-week consolidation and now attempting to push towards critical psychological barriers by 0.8500. Any hopes from USD bulls for a top can only now be achieved with an immediate failure above 0.8300 and break back below 0.8125 which now offers itself as formidable support. The market is set to close above the 100-Week SMA for the first time since August 2008. Elliott Wave Outlook: Bigger picture, the AUDUSD is at risk of a significant decline as the structure of the rally from .6005 is corrective (3 waves). But, the larger decline will not begin until wave v of C is complete . .8385 (61.8% of the decline from .9856) is potential resistance. Expect a test of .85.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR / US DOLLAR

Classical Outlook: Has just managed to squeak out a fresh 2009 high by 0.6640, with the market successfully putting in yet another weekly higher low and higher high. The key level to watch above comes in by the 200-Week SMA at 0.6730, but we would also expect this level to provide a solid cap on additional gains. It is worth noting that the market has recently failed directly by critical former support from August 2007 at 0.6640 which could be warning of a near-term top. Elliott Wave Outlook: The NZDUSD is in a similar position. Expect additional strength over the next several weeks to complete the rally from below .50. .6950 (pivot high from September 2008) is potential resistance.

US DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN

Classical Outlook: There is nothing bullish in the medium-term or longer-term for this pair with the market locked in an inter-day downtrend off of the 2009 highs by 101.45 and in a much more defined longer-term down-trend since 2007. We look for a fresh lower top now by 101.45 to be confirmed on an eventual break back below 87.15 over the coming weeks. Any rallies above 95.00 should therefore be used as good sell opportunities. Also look for a break back under 91.75 in the coming week to accelerate declines. Gains also continue to stall by the weekly Ichimoku cloud bottom. Elliott Wave Outlook: The decline from 101.50 is a series of 1st and 2nd waves. The USDJPY is resisted by the 200 day SMA (although the pair did trade above there briefly in the middle of this week). Bears are favored against 97.01 in anticipation of the long term decline continuing below 87.10 and eventually to an all-time low (below 80).

US DOLLAR / CANADIAN DOLLAR

Classical Outlook: Despite the latest pullback, we still hold a constructive outlook for the pair and look for a low to carve out at current levels ahead of renewed strength back above 1.1725 over the coming weeks. Daily studies are now oversold, while medium-term studies show the market very well supported below 1.1000. It is too early to call for a major double bottom, but a base at current levels and break back above 1.0935 would help to strengthen case. Elliott Wave Outlook: The entire rally from 1.0782 has been retraced. Additional weakness is expected in order to complete the decline from 1.1730 and by extension the entire decline from 1.3068. 1.0588 is the next level of potential support (Fibonacci).

US DOLLAR / SWISS FRANC

Classical Outlook: The market has mounted a slow and steady recovery since posting historic lows below parity in 2008, but is under pressure over the past several weeks with the latest consolidation underway just over 1.0500. But for the recovery structure to remain intact, the market needs to hold above the December 2008 1.0410 lows. A 2009 low was recently made by 1.0590 and we look for the latest consolidation to hold above this level ahead of a fresh upside break beyond 1.1025 which offers itself as medium-term resistance. Below 1.0590 concerns. Elliott Wave Outlook: Sticking with the USD bearish count, expectations over the next several weeks are for a thrust lower that ends below 1.0367. Bears are favored against 1.0939 and 1.0037 is a potential target (100% extension of 1.2303-1.0367).

EURO / JAPANESE YEN

Classical Outlook: No clear bias here as the market continues to chop around. A break back above 140.00 or below 127.00 is now required for clearer directional bias. Above 140.00 suggests major base in place, while back below 127.00 opens the door for bearish continuation. Elliott Wave Outlook: Lack of clarity is the best way to describe the EURJPY. Ideally, the rally from the January low in the EURJPY completes wave C of an expanded flat that began at the October 2008 low. The implications are bearish but this count doesn’t make sense with the EURUSD bullish count (unless the USDJPY falls that much more than the EURUSD gains…which is possible). For now, those trading the EURJPY would do best to play the 127-137 range but watch for potential support at 130.50 (Fibonacci).

BRITISH POUND / JAPANESE YEN

Classical Outlook: Very tough to call with compelling cases on both sides here. Bulls make a case for continued recovery from the historic lows set in early 2009, with a higher low now by 146.80 ahead of the next upside beyond 162.60. Bears can argue that we have broken the rising channel support off of the 2009 lows, with the latest rally expected to stall ahead of 162.60 and set up 1-2-3 top formation. We are sidelined. Elliott Wave Outlook: Very tough to call with compelling cases on both sides here. Bulls make a case for continued recovery from the historic lows set in early 2009, with a higher low now by 146.80 ahead of the next upside beyond 162.60. Bears can argue that we have broken the rising channel support off of the 2009 lows, with the latest rally expected to stall ahead of 162.60 and set up 1-2-3 top formation. We are sidelined.

EURO / BRITISH POUND

Classical Outlook: Weekly studies still show plenty of room to run and we look for additional setbacks towards the 0.8200 area. As per our commentary in the previous week, a lower top appears to be carving out by 0.8700, with the market putting in a very impressive bearish reversal week. Elliott Wave Outlook: The EURGBP appears to have completed a correction from the December 2008 top. The structure of the decline since then is not especially clear, which is the first sign that the pair in question is stuck in some sort of correction. However, the rally off of the low is choppy as well. Price is in the middle of a multi-week range right now so near term direction is unclear. Above .87 exposes .8870 and below .84 exposes .8230.

TRADE LIST

TRADE LIST

*Entry prices for trades that are recommended ‘at market’ are listed as the close price on the date published.

US Dollar Reversal and Breakout a Matter of Time – But When?

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Neutral

- US Gross Domestic Product numbers show worst drop in 27 years
- Dollar slipped on S&P rallies through earlier-week trading
- Months of consolidation could foreshadow US Dollar breakdown

The US Dollar finished the week lower against foreign counterparts, but it failed to break below key range-lows despite sharp S&P rallies and fairly disappointing domestic economic developments. The highly-anticipated US Gross Domestic Product showed that the economy contracted less than expected in the second quarter of the year, but noteworthy downward revisions to earlier figures clearly dampened optimism on growth. Government data showed that the economy saw its worst quarter-on-quarter performance in 27 years in Q1. The slower rate of contraction in Q2 may have calmed some nerves, but truly dismal Personal Consumption figures underlined that consumers—the engine of earlier economic growth—remains heavily subdued. The upcoming week brings infamous Non Farm Payrolls data to the fore, and it will be critical to watch for any signs that the US Dollar could finally break its range versus major forex counterparts.

Week in and week out we have discussed potential scenarios for a US Dollar breakout, but FX markets have shown little willingness to push the USD beyond its trading channel through directionless summer trade. Of course, forex market volatility tends to be mean-reverting over the medium-to-long run. Lengthy periods of consolidation most often lead to sharp breakouts, but the timing of said shift remains anything but clear. Forex options markets volatility expectations are near their lowest levels since August, 2008. Anecdotal evidence tells us that trading volumes have fallen sharply through the summer—theoretically making it easier for a big traders to force volatility. Yet few have shown the appetite for moving markets, and we anxiously await signs that the US dollar may finally break out of its consolidative range.

Can the US Non Farm Payrolls report and other key data releases finally break us from our recent range? We will certainly know the answer to this question once the coming week is through, but it is worthwhile to discuss possible scenarios in which the US Dollar could finally move sustainably higher or lower against the Euro and other key counterparts. Consensus forecasts imply that markets expect broad improvements in key NFP and similarly market-moving ISM Manufacturing and Services results. Given the general uptrend in equity markets and general economic mood, such predictions come of little surprise. Yet lofty expectations leave significant room for disappointment, and the very fact that the S&P 500 has rallied so substantially through recent weeks leaves it at risk for a noteworthy correction.

Forex futures and options data shows that traders remain extremely net-short the US Dollar, and our bias remains bullish as a result. The key difficulty remains the timing of any such correction, as market sentiment can remain at extremes for extended stretches. In other words, we know it’s all a matter of time. Given enough of it, we may expect the Greenback to finally break above the Euro 1.4350 mark or below 1.3800. Given enough time, traders will unwind extremely one-sided US Dollar short positions and bring a noteworthy correction. Whether that may be in the week ahead is anyone’s guess, however, and it will be critical to watch for signs of a sustained reversal. Said signal could come from the S&P 500 and other key financial market risk barometers. -

U.S. Forex Market Commentary

EURO

The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4095 level and was supported around the $1.4010 level. Strong gains in U.S. equities markets led to a difficult day for the U.S. dollar as risk appetite expanded and the greenback’s safe haven appeal diminished. The International Monetary Fund reported recessionary problems in the eurozone are receding. The IMF now foresees a 4.8% decline in gross domestic product in the eurozone this year. Data released in the U.S. today saw weekly initial jobless claims up 25,000 to 584,000 while continuing jobless claims were off 54,000 to 6.197 million. The Fed released its July Beige Book yesterday and reported the recession is easing in most regions of the country, noting “the pace of decline has moderated since the last report or that activity has begun to stabilize, albeit at a low level.” In eurozone news, German July unemployment fell a surprising 6,000 on an adjusted basis and were up 52,000 on a non-adjusted basis, equivalent to 8.2% of the workforce. Other data released today saw German June plant, machinery orders slump 46% y/y. The European Commission reported business and consumer confidence in the eurozone improved in July with the overall Economic Sentiment Indicator rising sharply to an eight-month high of 76.0 from 73.2 in June. Similarly, July industrial confidence improved to -30 from -32 in June and consumer confidence was lifted to -23 from -25. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3900 figure.

JPY / CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥95.65 level and was supported around the ¥94.80 level. Data released in Japan overnight saw June industrial output climb 2.4% m/m and 8.3% q/q in April-June, - the largest jump since 1953 - while the July trade deficit printed at ¥38.415 billion in the first ten days of July, off 18.0% y/y. Bank of Japan Policy Board member Noda said the central bank has no plans to change its current easy monetary policy and remains sensitive to an increase in long-term interest rates that could inhibit the economic recovery. Noda added “As corporate earnings conditions remain severe, uncertainty over final demand is high even after progress in inventory adjustment, and concerns over fundraising are not receding.” Some of the BoJ’s temporary liquidity measures will expire on 31 December as of now and Noda said keeping the measures for some time could damage the economy. Noda is one of the more hawkish members of the Policy Board and his remarks evidence caution at the central bank. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.51% to close at ¥10,165.21. U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥134.70 level and was supported around the ¥133.20 level. The British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¥158.00 figure while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-à-vis the yen and tested offers around the ¥87.90 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar lost ground vis-à-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8293 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8285. Chinese officials made it clear overnight that they will continue to keep monetary policy loose and this supported international equity markets. Traders had noted chatter yesterday suggesting China may begin to restrict bank lending further.